letsgobucs.com

[Open for discussion]

2006-05-14T00:22:00.000-04:00

This offseason, the Bucs made some ugly free agent acquisitions. Burnitz is one step away from Gianthood (and a second step from the baseball graveyard). Randa furtively moved Sanchez to the utility role that management preferred, despite his inability to outproduce the incumbent. Roberto Hernandez wasn't a bad signing, but there were better places to assign that money; Victor Santos got the fifth starter spot due solely to buttercream veteran frosting.

So here's the question: Who was the Pirates' last impact free-agent signing?

Below are the key signings of the PNC era. Torres was a good gamble at the time; still, unless you count Reggie Sanders as a key free agent, you won't find the answer here.

2005-06
Jeromy Burnitz
Roberto Hernandez
Joe Randa

2004-05
Rick White

2003-04
Jose Mesa
Randall Simon
Chris Stynes

2002-03
Jeff D'Amico
Nelson Figueroa
Kenny Lofton
Jeff Reboulet*
Reggie Sanders
Matt Stairs
Julian Tavarez

*Reboulet actually played more games at 2B than any other Pirate in 2003

2001-2002
Pokey Reese
Salomon Torres
Ron Villone^
Mike Williams (return engagement)

^Your opening day starter in '02

[Hiatus]

2006-04-20T13:44:00.000-04:00

I'm off for a while. I had the equivalent of 22 undergraduate college credits this semester, I start grad school on June 26, and my wife and I just had a beautiful, healthy baby daughter on Easter Sunday.

I will be back with regularity later this summer. Until then, enjoy Operation Lockdown. Too bad it didn't happen five years ago, as then maybe the Bucs could have voided his contract.

PS: How long till the Pirates realize that Chris Duffy is carrying the good-CF-for two-months torch, lit by Turner Ward in 1997, and carried by Adrian Brown, Brant Brown, and Tike Redman? I say June 11. Discuss.

[Abe]

2005-12-03T00:42:00.000-05:00

[True or False?: The Bay signing]

2005-11-22T00:48:00.000-05:00

The Pirates' signing of Jason Bay (four years, $18.25M) was the best possible use of this off-season's newly available funding.

[Philosophy]

2005-09-15T22:09:00.000-04:00

(thanks to D.R.)

[Good news!]

2005-09-06T15:41:00.000-04:00

Finally.

What's the over-under on how many times Lloyd refers to himself as a "young man" in the press conference? I say four, and the good money's on the over.

[Nights like tonight]

2005-07-22T23:34:00.000-04:00

Tonight, the Bucs (41-55) lost to the Rockies (33-61) in a dog day evening affair. But for a few minutes, I remembered what it's like to hold your breath when the pitcher goes into his motion.

As early as the first inning, you can feel the electricity, knowing it's a near sellout. It's a fireworks crowd, sure -- too interested in the pierogi race, oohing at fly outs and aahing at foul balls. But the humidity's not as bad tonight, and the atrocious Astros series has mercifully concluded.

This big kid from the Ft. Lauderdale suburbs is pushing 300 pounds, and may have shoulders broad enough to carry the burden of hope for millions of long-suffering fans. Two months ago, he was in Blair County. Tonight he's batting clean-up in the bigs with a clean slate, the most hopeful .000 career average you've seen in years.

You catch yourself reacting like a teenager when he rifles a single to center in his first big league at-bat.

And then, a funny thing happens -- a good old-fashioned baseball game develops. The Rockies get a solo homer from Holliday for the early lead, and tack on two more in the sixth; the Bucs stop the bleeding and strike back for two in bottom of the frame.

The ninth comes, and you can see it unfolding. Wilson and Castillo turn a 6-4-3 single play, possibly the greatest defensive play you've ever seen in the flesh. The momentum is deafening, 35,000 strong. It feels that much sweeter after the recent drought, like that first beer after working in the yard all day -- you could drink a dozen more, but none will be as cold or as delicious as the one that rinsed away your thirst.

There's one out in the ninth, and the Pirates have tied it. Bases loaded. The kid's up.

You write on your scorecard "perfectly scripted?" There's a hitch in your breath, and your face is flushed, like it hasn't been since high school. Suddenly, it's the beginning of something.

And the kid strikes out on three pitches. The momentum's gone.

The Rockies score two off of Mesa in the tenth on a Helton bomb, and McClendon gives the game away in the bottom of the tenth with an execrable bunt call.

(Note to self: Buy 100 copies of Weaver on Strategy. Mail one to my father, and then one daily to McClendon for 99 days)

But seriously, it was a hell of a ride, despite the pair of go-nowhere teams fighting for the 15th-best record in the National League.

Nights like tonight make me remember what it means to be a Pirates fan.

Thank you, Brad Eldred.

[Spinner]

2005-07-19T16:40:00.000-04:00

It is hard to evaluate the effectiveness of a pitching coach. Some combination of reputation and results keeps certain pitching coaches on the big league payroll for decades.

Spin Williams has been McClendon's pitching coach since 2001, a span in which the Bucs' staff has been a mixed bag at best.

Last night, Spin visited the mound three times:

1. Top 4, bases loaded, Humberto Quintero at bat. Result: three-run double
2. Top 6, no outs, runner on first, Chris Burke at bat. Result: bunt base hit
3. Top 9, two outs, bases loaded, Lance Berkman at bat. Result: two-run single

Spin's line: 3-for-3, five RBI.

Maybe there is a way to evaluate a pitching coach.

[Pesipolo]

2005-07-01T00:11:00.000-04:00

I was talking APBA with some friends last week, and I learned that my buddy John is replaying the 1975 season; I spent the whole summer between high school and college doing the same. Jerry Reuss was 23-2 in my replay, but the Bucs couldn't get past the Reds in the LCS.

I mentioned that Tony Solaita's 1975 card -- the apogee of the take-and-rake Samoan's too-short career -- was one of my favorites of all time, up there with Fats Fothergill's 1928 and Kal Daniels' in 1987.

Anyway, I was up late and poking around online, and I found this retrospective of Solaita's life both in and out of baseball. I had no idea that he was even in the Pirates' system. It's definitely worth a read.

[Pirates history]

2005-06-20T18:31:00.000-04:00

It was the highpoint in the baseball career of one of the finer pitchers of his time, and arguably, one of the greatest achievements in the history of sports.

That's from the first search result when you Google a certain former Bucco.

[Phelps DFA again]

2005-06-08T17:37:00.000-04:00

Josh Phelps is again a baseball nomad. I still think he'd look good in black and gold.

This is hilarious.

[McCutchen it is]

2005-06-07T13:37:00.000-04:00

The Bucs drafted Andrew McCutchen 11th overall, surprising no one. McCutchen's a toolsy high school outfielder from Florida, 5'11"/175. Lance Broadway would have been nice (think a right-handed Barry Zito), but there were many worse picks than McCutchen.

Here's a nice feature on McCutchen from Baseball America.

A bad sign? Ed Creech's quote. "He's an athlete." You know, if you're bottoming out in a player-development sense, is this the way to go?

I remember my first APBA draft in 1990. I was very, very excited to take two toolsy high school OFs with my first two minor league picks -- a pair of guys who were simply too talented to possibly fail.

Two years later, I cut both Earl Cunningham (#8 overall, Cubs, 1989) and Paul Coleman (#6, Cards, '89).

Let's look at this in a positive light. It's not a decision based on finance, but is instead based on talent. It's not another college starter with Trachselian upside. It's not a groin-kick bridesmaid pick like Alex Gordon or Mark Merchant.

And they're not turning him into a starting pitcher.

[2005 Topps]

2005-06-06T09:56:00.000-04:00

In the 2005 Topps set, the Pirates have two Topps All-Star Rookies (Gonzalez and Bay) for the first time ever.

But here's the true highlight:

[Back in action]

2005-06-05T03:06:00.000-04:00

I'm back. Sorry about that unexpected hiatus.

Here's the body of an e-mail I got a few hours ago from a good friend and fellow Pirates fan/lamenter:

[The Wigginton demotion] has Lloyd's fingerprints all over it. I am not a Wigginton fan, but this organization has no friggin' clue. Wigginton should have been played all over the infield to show his versatility in order to be shopped at the deadline. Now (like D'Angelo Jimenez) he has no trade value.

One more thought... just how much value does Sanchez have at 3B? Jack Wilson wasn't hitting as well as Wigginton, and has less of a track record. Yet, he continues to chew up outs like a rat through cork. I know Sanchez had a couple of token appearances there, but a more extended audition would have been very helpful. Who knows? Maybe he could field well enough to get another bat in the lineup.

I'm glad the Pirates have played better lately, but they really need to hit bottom again so Lloyd and Dave both get fired, and the pressure builds for McClatchy to step aside. Instead, they'll lose between 85-95 again, and the streak continues with no end in sight.

Just one man's opinion. :)

I couldn't have said it better myself, except for the "and Dave" part. I still have a good deal of faith in the Pirates' GM. These next two months will be quite telling.

Much, much more to come.

PS: Here's a sweet picture of Jose Castillo from tonight's action.

[Macko tidbit]

2005-04-26T20:57:00.000-04:00

It's a shame that Brian O'Neill's columns are labeled so pejoratively. You have to wonder how many people skip it because of the word "geek" (or even the word "stats").

I always wish I'd dug up the things he finds. For example:

Mackowiak is not your classic top-of-the-order guy. He strikes out a lot. He walks less than the league average. But he is fast. He has stolen 30 bases in 38 attempts since 2002 and he may have grounded into fewer double plays per at-bat than anyone in the history of baseball.

Fascinating stuff. And to think all I've come up with lately is that Brewers owner Mark Attanasio is the brother of Quiz Show and Donnie Brasco scribe Paul Attanasio.

[Washout]

2005-04-26T20:30:00.000-04:00

For those who are interested, this was McClendon's lineup card for the game that was rained out earlier this evening:

RF Lawton

2B Sanchez

LF Bay

1B C Wilson

CF Mackowiak

3B Wigginton

C Ross

SS J Wilson

P Wells

[We have a nickname]

2005-04-21T09:18:00.000-04:00

Thanks to Gene Collier, the 2005 Pirates have a nickname, as apt as 1979's "We Are Family" and 1997's Freak Show.

Your 2005 Pittsburgh Pirates: The Slumber Company.

[Lloyd Libs]

2005-04-19T09:44:00.000-04:00

Thanks to today's coverage, we can play Mad Libs with McClendon for the first time this season:

Adjective: burly
Adjective: ticklish
Adverb: graciously
Noun: mouthwash
Adjective: orange

"The meeting was about perception and reality," McClendon said. "Every talk show in town is going to be saying I should be fired. They are going to be saying our players are [adjective], I'm a [adjective] manager and our team is playing [adverb].

"That's the perception, but the reality is that we're only 13 games into the season. We need to keep playing hard and not worry about all that other [noun] coming from people outside this clubhouse.

"We'll win five or six in a row and all those people who are saying we are [adjective] will be saying it's a miracle."

Try it. It's fun!

[On productive outs]

2005-04-19T09:34:00.000-04:00

[T]he Pirates have guys who make outs too much. When the best argument for a hitter begins with how much better his outs are, either find another hitter or another argument.

The worst team for productive outs was Boston, which scored the most runs in baseball.

Excellent column in today's P-G by Brian O'Neill. It's great to see this type of analysis in a major newspaper; the revolution may not (yet) be televised, but it's being read at Denny's.

It's a start.

[Renovated as a QB?]

2005-04-18T10:56:00.000-04:00

Murmurs from Morgantown have J.R. House taking snaps instead of BP. A once-touted Pirates farmhand returning to the college ranks is not without precedent.

[Browsing the headlines]

2005-04-14T07:17:00.000-04:00

When I saw this article's headline, I thought Chuck Berry might be planning a tour. Retrospect is a strange filter; it's easy to forget that Rocker had an effective season after the SI interview. His walk rate spiked, going from bad to worse, but the wheels didn't come off until the 2001 season. By that time, over a year had passed since the article was published.

Mike Hargrove logged his 1,000th win this week. When he took the wheel from John McNamara midway through the 1991 season, the freshman skipper inherited a bad, young team. It would be years before the Indians would become the model for new-market rebuilding, and Hargrove traveled a rough road before the team clicked in 1994. Hargrove is the 51st manager to win 1,000 games, and it happened in roughly 13 1/2 seasons. For perspective, if McClendon continues at his current pace, he'll win his 1,000th game in May 2015.

Guy Junker is lamenting the Pirates' loss of Joe Randa. When Randa went unprotected in the 1997 expansion draft, it was so long ago that none of us had yet heard of Monica Lewinsky. Randa was the 57th player taken in the expansion draft, immediately following Bryan Karp, Mike Bell, and Santos Hernandez. This is about as relevant as ripping the Bucs for trading Don Hoak, since Ted Savage stunk up the joint in 1963, and Bob Bailey wasn't really ready to take over third base until 1964.

[bucsblog: 4.8.2005]

2005-04-08T21:47:00.000-04:00

9:47 PM
Deep within the recesses of letsgobucs HQ, within sniffing distance of scenic Neville Island, it's the first ever live bucsblog for yours truly.

My job: Watch the game; provide trenchant and/or asinine commentary; keep everybody company while we watch the Bucs try to put one in the W column.

Your job: Forgive any typos; comment as you please; refresh frequently.

I have a handful of aluminum Irons on ice, a sausage pie en route from Mama Lena's, and an endless supply of useless information at my fingertips.

Let's give this a try.

10:07 PM
Tike's batting third again. You have to wonder if this truly is an experiment, and what it's going to take to get Lloyd to end it. Redman went 0-5 last night.

This is a man who is lucky to be drawing a MLB paycheck, and he's batting third.

10:09 PM
John Wehner's making his TV debut. Not bad so far; he's in the Bob Walk mold -- insightful but genuine, unpolished.

10:13 PM
That's about as hard as Tike Redman's going to hit a soft-tosser like Lawrence. He pasted it to right; Giles turned improperly and still ran it down with little trouble.

Redman's the worst #3 hitter for this team since Leyland strictly adhered to lineup slotting, and subbed in Cecil Espy for Van Slyke in the 3 hole.

10:18 PM
Though it's early, it's good to see that Brian Giles is off to a good start.

Players like him seldom age gracefully, and the end tends to come at once, not gradually.

To wit:
Exhibit A
Exhibit B
Exhibit C

Giles will always be one of my favorite players, a bright spot on a lot of bad Pirates teams.

10:24 PM
If the Pirates' FSN broadcast team ever do musical theater, I'd bet a stack of high society that Dan Potash would get the lead. Jazz hands when recounting an interview? That's a performer.

10:28 PM
That 'stache on Craig Wilson is fantastic. I didn't think the Thor coif could be outdone, but he looks like an extra in Boogie Nights. Not that there's a lot of competition, but that's the best Bucco mustache since Tommy Sandt's.

10:30 PM
Wehner's got the chops. I keep forgetting that he's a franchise guy, having worked in various capacities throughout the chain. He knows personnel up and down, which brings rare insight to the booth. I'd imagine that as the team breaks in the farmhands this season, Wehner will have a lot to say. That he already does is a true testament.

10:40 PM
Years ago, my wife and I were merely dating. I'd flown out to San Francisco, where she was living, and we took a road trip down the coast. We stayed in a hotel literally across the street from Disneyland when I realized that the Bucs were playing in San Diego the next night.

I told her I couldn't miss the opportunity to see the Pirates play on the road. She said to forget about Disneyland and we headed to San Diego. How's that for knowing you've got a keeper?

Now, every time the Bucs are out west, I think about this game.

10:44 PM
Two on, scoreless in the third, one out, and your #3 hitter's coming up. Great news, unless you're batting Tike Redman third.

This is inexplicable. Why put an outmaking machine in the heart of your order?

10:45 PM
Redman walks. McClendon gets a pass, for now.

10:46 PM
Not deep enough. Two outs.

10:47 PM
Lanny's got his one career grand slam on his note cards, evidently.

How about some Mustache Magic for Craig Wilson?

10:48 PM
All hail the Mustache Magic! Maybe it's time to take a banner to PNC.

That's the Pirates' first lead since the one taken in the bottom of the first on opening day. That one lasted about nine minutes.

10:53 PM
I've said it many times to my friends, but this is a banner era for the Reggie Cleveland All-Stars. With Khalil Greene and Marcus Giles manning the keystone, we're in an historic epoch; if J.R. House can get well behind the plate, the RCAS would be incredibly strong up the middle for years to come.

10:55 PM
A 3-4-1 putout is fun to see. While often producing excruciating results in the box score, Fogg's a pretty heady player. I like that he's among the fastest workers on the hill, and he seldom embarrasses himself in the field.

11:15 PM
Other than using "them" when he should use "those" (i.e. "them balls"), Wehner's doing a good job tonight. So many color guys today are so utterly replaceable. Outside of the quietly erudite Kyle Peterson and the extraordinarily sharp Steve Phillips, I can't remember a recent addition to the analyst ranks who knocked my socks off.

I mean, have you heard David Justice call a game? I've never rooted for a comeback this hard... just so I don't have to hear his voice.

Wehner's not perfect, but he'll do. And when they can McClendon, there will still be two ties -- Walk and Wehner -- to the mini-dynasty of the early 1990s.

11:18 PM
At Petco tonight, they're giving away this Khalil Greene figurine:

That's pretty cool.

How funny was it to hear Dan Potash waxing retro-futuristically about how good Pine-Richland's baseball alumni would have been, had Khalil Greene not moved to Florida when he was five years old?

Dan must have told the FSN brass he was chasing leads, while instead augmenting his Florida sunburn.

After showing the figurine on the broadcast, Potash suggested that Wehner should have one; Wehner countered that it should depict him sitting on the bench. That's pretty funny.

I had 11:04 in the When Will Lanny Mention Wehner's Hitting the Last Homer at Three Rivers Pool. Whoever had the over, I owe you a beer.

11:27 PM
Is it just me, or does Wehner sound more and more like Bob Walk as the night progresses? It's more pitch and cadence than anything else; their voices resemble each other. Wehner's miles ahead of where Walk was as a rookie broadcaster.

11:34 PM
Lanny mentioned that Xavier Nady made his pro debut in majors. He's the last player to skip the minors completely. The full list is here.

11:48 PM
Wow. Josh Fogg is the only member of the Pirates rotation with a winning record:

Fogg 33-31
Redman 48-51
Wells 47-52
Perez 20-25
Williams 7-15

11:56 PM
I think it's awesome that Rob Dibble's the new addition to the "Best Damn Sports Show Period" coterie. I've never seen the show, and now have all the more reason to avoid it.

11:59 PM
Kudos to McClendon for lifting Fogg. He hadn't been hit hard all night, but the rockets were suddenly coming, and coming fast. Torres is his best reliever, and McClendon chose the ideal time to bring him in.

12:12 AM
Good game! Mike Gonzalez did a hell of a job on Miguel Ojeda. The 1-2 of Torres and Gonzalez gives me a glimmer of hope for this season.

This team won't win 80 games, but having those two guys will snuff more than a few rallies.

12:15 AM
Do you think that Dan Potash's forehead peeled in one piece, or did it come off in chunks?

12:16 AM
I'm disappointed in the Come Hungry campaign. When you have a marginally anonymous squad, and they're likely to be in town for a while, it's a good idea to showcase their personalities. The Century 21 Q&A bits on the scoreboard are endlessly entertaining. Wouldn't you want your ad campaign to yield similar results?

Help us get to know these guys. In a small market, it's your only hope. If you have a revolving door for a roster and a team that hasn't been over .500 since A-Rod was in high school, it's really the only way to get people to invest in the team emotionally.

The buffet line of baseballs that Jack Wilson peruses was played out the second time it aired.

We all want to like these guys. Help us.

12:24 AM
Duffy debuts. His stance looks a lot like Brian Giles' -- wide open at first, a little rigid, with a lot of shoulder rotation.

Feeble groundout to kick off his career.

12:30 AM
Mike Gonzalez is in midseason form. I really enjoy watching this guy pitch.

In particular, I like how he stands before launching into his windup -- legs far apart, hands chest-high, left elbow cocked slightly. He looks like a gunfighter, but isn't at all flashy.

Borderline pitch to Giles results in a walk. McClendon bounced for the 14th time in just over four years. I can't believe it's been that few; they're always so memorable...

12:37 AM
That's a hell of a play by Bobby Hill on a rocket to third.

12:43 AM
You can tell how comfortable the Bucs are with their physiques by how tight their long sleeves are. Lawton and Gonzalez, for example, wear the tight neoprene undergarment, sans logo. Jack Wilson and Bay wear the more blousy cotton long sleeves, with the Bucco logo on the left shoulder. Wigginton wears long sleeves under a t-shirt, which he wears beneath his vest.

1:06 AM
Mesa pulls off a white-knuckle save, and Lanny uses his catchphrase for the first time in 2005.

Thanks for watching the game with me tonight. I hope we can do it again soon.

-JT

[Home opener]

2005-04-04T23:56:00.000-04:00

I will now empty my pockets of Bucco tidbits accumulated during today's opener.

The season started with the appropriate Black Eyed Peas song. Oliver Perez looked good early, missing bats and getting that inimitable hammer over. He was his usual electric, inefficient self, showing no ill effects of his late start; his stats belied a decent appearance. He's presently clean-shaven, leaving infinite Wooly Willy permutations to one's imagination.

Rick White's wearing #88. There was a moment, down 8-2 in the sixth, White on the hill, when I thought it might be 1995. I was almost looking for Steve Pegues in the on-deck circle.

Shown on the scoreboard each time through the order:

Pirates players painting a 3' by 5' canvas to their respective likings. These paintings will be auctioned for the benefit of Dapper Dan Charities during the first few months of the 2005 season. My favorite was Jose Castillo's.
Overly simplistic -- and often lame -- rebus puzzles of the player's name. If this lasts the season, they'd better start sprinkling in some variety. Makes me long for last year's Warholian pastiches.
Split-screen: Pittsburgh at night, and a headshot of the batter.
A Pirated-up caricature. It's an actual photo, decorated with eyepatch, bandanna, etc.

Irrelevant but potentially interesting:

Sauerkraut Saul won. Jim Krenn was the guest announcer; no word if that's a new wrinkle to the 'rogi race.
Sure as the sun rises tomorrow, Jeff Cirillo will wend his way to countless roto teams, only to be dumped by month's end.
It was the 9th-largest crowd in PNC history, and the largest for an opener.
"Crazy Train" was the crowd's song of choice. That may have some staying power, at least until Skynyrd or a skiing squirrel shows up.

[Season's greetings]

2005-04-04T12:29:00.000-04:00

Sorry I've been MIA for a month or so; I'm back in school full-time and it's kind of kicking my butt.

Anyway, happy baseball new year to all. I may be intermittent with the updates for the rest of the month, but I'll be posting more than most will care to read this summer.

I'm in the eagle's nest that is the PNC Park press box, and there's not a place in the world I'd rather be.

A few quick hits before we get underway:

It's true: Tike Redman's batting third today. Craig Wilson's 0-13 against Sheets in his career, while Redman 's 5-for-20.
Oliver Perez makes his first opening day start today, hopefully one of many in the black and gold. The last Pirate to start consecutive openers was Francisco Cordova, 1998-1999.
The former tenenbaum plaza below the batter's eye is now an intricately carved hedge sporting the Pirates logo. Amazing craftsmanship on that number.
This is the only Bucco opener since I've been of drinking age that didn't have Kendall catching.

I'll give a full round-up of what's new at the ballpark this evening, and may post a few tidbits during the game. Let's go Bucs!

[Bullington's apologists]

2005-03-02T23:32:00.000-05:00

"I throw four pitches and try to throw them all for strikes," he said. "I've got just a few minor things I'm trying to iron out but, for the most part, I'm pretty comfortable with where I'm at."

I read that quote and was sure it came from Ryan Vogelsong, who many profile as a starter who "just needs to put it together" to be a mid-rotation regular. Vogelsong hits a little, won't embarrass you on the bases, can put down a bunt with regularity, and fields his position very well. He also has a four-pitch repertoire ideal for a starter.

No, it was Bryan Bullington who spoke those words.

Bullington, as I lamented recently, was the number one choice in the 2002 amateur draft. McClatchy decided that the Bucs should go the safe route and select a polished college pitcher who would help the team in short order, not gamble on the high school shortstop who was crowned Jeter Redux before he could vote. Rumor was that the shortstop wanted too much money to sign, as he was heavily recruited by Florida State.

The Pirates picked Bullington; I felt the mistake was so grave that I downloaded this photo into a folder labeled "ruefulnostalgia". The Pirates offered him a $4,000,000 signing bonus. Bullington sat out the entirety of 2002, then accepted the Pirates' initial offer in late October.

B.J. Upton was the second pick of the 2002 draft. He signed for just $500,000 more than Bullington, then excelled at every level as the Rays promoted him aggressively through their farm system. He made his MLB debut this year at age 19.

Upton is on the cusp of stardom. He may open the 2005 season at AAA to work on his defense, but he'll be back in the bigs before the end of the season. He'll start hitting this year, and probably won't stop till 2023 or so. This is the type of star to which you hitch your franchise's wagon.

Bryan Bullington is not.

I say this not out of bitterness or spite, but as context for a pair of recent articles profiling the Pirates righthander. The Post-Gazette ran a story on Monday with the aforementioned quote, and Ed Eagle posted an article on mlb.com late last week.

Bullington's is a story that writes itself, so there's no surprise that he's in the news. As Upton's star ascends, Bullington has stagnated. He's somewhere between Altoona and Pittsburgh, a distance far shorter by car than by metaphor. He's a de facto underdog, a magnet for sports writers hungry for daily leads.

Ask anyone in the Pirates system, and their pre-programmed answers say what you'd expect. They claim to be satisfied with Bullington's progress. From the P-G:

"The velocity comes and goes, but he's going to settle in at 89-93. He's got enough fastball," Littlefield said. "As with a lot of young pitchers, it's more about command and being able to throw more than one pitch for strikes. He's gotten better at that, and he's going to have to get even better."

Fair enough. He does indeed have to get better; he's developmentally behind at least five other untested Pirates starters -- two of whom will miss the majority of the 2005 season. But it's good to hear Littlefield address Bullington's progress frankly.

I have spoken to the Pirates GM several times. I am continually impressed by his insight, his passion, and his candor. But every time I grow overly enamored, a quote like this makes my jaw hit the table:

"At this point, I don't think we're ready to acknowledge who was the better pick," Littlefield said. "Bullington has progressed well, done some good things. He certainly needs to improve on areas, like a lot of young players, but we like what we see. Upton, from what we've seen, is a fine-looking player. He's done some real good things with the bat, moved quickly to get to the big leagues. But you've got to look from a longer standpoint."

B.J. Upton was the better pick in 2002. He's the better pick today. He'll be the better pick a month from now, a year from now, and a decade from now. Assuming he stays at the position, Upton will be the best shortstop in baseball as soon as 2007.

Littlefield may be protecting the ego of his player. It's hard to fault him if that's the case, but the concern remains that he believes what he's saying.

"Rookies should be seen and not heard," the old saying goes.

That's how the mlb.com story begins, and that quote guides the entire article. Eagle's more of a Bullington apologist than Kovacevic, creating a rosy personality sketch of a young man who earnestly says (and maybe even believes) all the right things.

Eagle has decided that Bullington's getting a bum rap, so he says, to address Bullington's loss of ~5 MPH since his days at Ball State:

There have been more than a few whispers that the right-hander has lost velocity off his fastball since leaving college.

They aren't really whispers. Pirates personnel won't go on the record about it, but it's been extensively discussed in the press.

Then you get this gem from the GM, putting another dent in his credibility:

"With any kind of draft you have to realize that it takes a while for [the players] to establish what they are going to be," said Littlefield. "At this point in time, to acknowledge who is the better pick, I think it's a little too early.

Like I said above, it's not too early. It's actually way too late.

Obscured by the spin and damage control from the front office is a calm and realistic young man who seems to understand what's expected of him -- and what he has yet to deliver.

In short, Bryan Bullington says all the right things. B.J. Upton does all the right things.

I'll take Upton.

[previous: Four-man rotation?] . . .

[Four-man rotation]

2005-02-18T15:29:00.000-05:00

Today in the P-G, the word is that the Bucco brass is considering a four-man rotation.

I'm a firm believer in abolishing the fifth starter in just about any circumstance, particularly early in the season.

Kneejerk reaction wil be negative, as the Pirates have had trouble keeping their mound charges healthy even with diminished workloads. Short rest, most believe, increases the chance for injury.

This claim is simply false.

Read Rany Jazayerli's seminal work on the four-man's impact on pitcher health.

Read Weaver on Strategy; nobody was better at breaking in young pitchers in a swingman role. The inexplicably unemployed Larry Dierker was the last great manager in the Weaver mold, successfully breaking in Oswalt, Miller, Elarton, and Redding in low-impact roles.

There is merit to the idea, and lessons can be culled from recent examples. This could be a sign that the Pirates, for once, are ahead of the curve.

It could also be an excuse for McClendon to carry both Freddy Sanchez and Cesar Crespo.

[previous: Let's go bucks] . . .

[Let's go bucks]

2005-02-03T14:27:00.000-05:00

[Click here to access "Let's go bucks", the Pirates' long-term financial roster]

Working my dad's booth at PirateFest, I had an interesting insight into some Bucs fans' attitudes. There is a dynamic in play when you're selling something to a fan who's been kicked around a little by his favorite any current player. The rug, they suggested, could be pulled at any time.

I try to be a good salesman without going all used-car on everyone. It helps when you believe in the product. For the first time in a while, I do; this is an exciting team.

As a son relished his still-slick Jason Bay autograph, the boy's father grumbled that Bay would be playing for the Yankees by 2007. When I mentioned that Bay wouldn't be a free agent till the end of the decade, the man was relieved. And confused.

Where, he asked, can you find this information?

I explained that you can't find it in a centralized location, but a Google box and a little legwork could get you all the answers. His eyes glossed over a little when I said Google, and I realized somebody should really gather this data and put it all in one place.

So I did.

That's a chart of all the Pirates' salary obligations and contract status through the 2009 season.

Tell me what you think; more importantly, let me know if I'm in error.

Enjoy!

[previous: Browsing the headlines] . . . [next: Four-man rotation]

[Browsing the headlines]

2005-02-02T19:08:00.000-05:00

A few things of interest:

The consistently stellar John Perrotto proves that you can ask important questions without pointing fingers. Extra credit for the cyclical footnote on the Rick White signing.

I can attest, having been there almost all 18 hours this weekend, that PirateFest reflected a growing excitement about this club. Evidently I'm not the only one.

The new uniform top is indeed a pinstriped vest. Not bad!

Jeromy Burnitz is signing with the Cubs, the best example of addition by omission that I've seen in years. As I mentioned last month, Burnitz is in store for a big drop-off at sea level. He's the flip side to Richard Hidalgo's identical contract.

There's all kinds of juicy rumor being spread by Kovacevic today. Here are the 2005 PECOTA projections for the outfielders suggested as trade targets:

[previous: Recent goings-on] . . . [next: Let's go bucks]

[Recent goings-on, part two]

2005-01-28T02:04:00.000-05:00

Grabow assured roster spot, 1.15

The Pirates GM has designated a roster spot to John Grabow. I guess there's not a lot to quibble with here. We're looking at (barring injury) this bullpen:

RH Mesa
LH Gonzalez
LH Grabow
RH Meadows
RH Torres

That leaves one spot, most likely, still up for grabs. It's almost certainly going to a third lefty; Mike Johnston acquitted himself last season in limited duty, and we all know how Lloyd leans more to the familiar than toward the effective. Maybe that's why Johnston's the only lefty in camp up for the job, since the Bucs were granted an extra Dave Williams option.

Duke's a pearl, 1.17

Zach Duke was crowned top Pirates prospect in John Perrotto's annual Baseball America list. Additionally, McClendon indicated that Duke is in the running for the last rotation spot. The buzz will likely build, and a few good spring training outings -- plus flattering quotes from Tony LaRussa types -- and Duke heads north with the club.

Is there a non-Latin name in baseball right now better than Zach Duke?

His 2004 was fantastic, probably the best for a Pirates minor league pitcher since... wow. Kurt Miller's 1991? The four games that Kris Benson pitched for Clemson after he was drafted?

He needs to at least open the season in the minors, for all kinds of reasons.

Like:

1. He has 51 1/3 innings above A-ball

2. His 1.46 ERA and peripheral numbers are fantastic, but a huge jump from
prior performance

3. If you let him develop in Pittsburgh, you'll be paying him a lot more --
a lot sooner

Look, I love rooting for the new guy as much as anyone. I also want this particular guy to be the best pitcher he can possibly be at the major league level. I think the road to that goal includes a stop at Indianapolis.

Fogg and Craig Wilson get raises, 1.18

Josh Fogg will be paid $2,150,000 this year. Not a good allocation of resources.

I was in the press box for this game, so I'm disqualifying myself from further comment.

Wilson gets $3M this year, which sounds about right for a player of his calber in the next-to-last year of arbitration. He'll be expensive a year from now. We'll take a look at the prospects of signing him long-term as the season unfolds.

Lopez, Grieve get NRIs, 1.24

Albie Lopez and Ben Grieve were signed to minor league deals and invited to spring training.

Lopez hasn't pitched in the bigs since 2003, when he was hammered to the tune of 32 runs in 22 innings. He isn't likely to make the club.

Greive is formerly famous, having been the AL's Rookie of the Year in 1998. His sweet swing had him marked for stardom, but something happened along the way; he's bounced among three organizations the last two years.

I had a season ticket in Oakland in 2000 and 2001. Ben Grieve is unquestionably the worst outfielder I have ever seen -- and I've seen Kevin Mitchell, Erubiel Durazo, and Lonnie Smith man the pasture in person.

Mackowiak gets a raise, 1.24

Rob Mackowiak was asking for $1.8M in arbitration, so the Bucs split the difference, offering him $1.35M and then signing him for and even $1.5M.

Miscast as a starting 3B last year, Mackowiak will likely be on super-utility detail this year, the role for which he is best suited. He can't hit lefties at all (.164/.188/.230 in 2004), but he's versatile enough to fill in at the corner infield and outfield spots against righties; when he doesn't start, he'll give McClendon ample fodder for another season of increasingly tedious double-switches.

Van Benschoten down for the count, 1.27

John Van Benschoten will miss all of 2005 -- and likely the first few months of 2006 -- recovering from a visit to the corner of Jobe and Andrews.

A torn labrum was once a pitcher's death knell, but times are changing. There's a chance that Van Benschoten will once again be a promising pitcher. The over-under is 2008, and I'll take the over.

Speaking strictly as a fan, it's unfortunate that Littlefield categorically shot down any chance of JVB's returning to his slugging roots.

Is this injury indicative of a systemic development problem for pitchers? More on this later.

White potentially back in town, 1.27

Talk about coming full-circle. Rick White signed a minor league deal, and will get a NRI.

White was Pittsburgh's 15th round pick the day this game was played, and he pitched for the big club in the strike era. He was an inaugural Devil Ray, then pitched for the Mets, Cardinals, Rockies, White Sox, Astros, and Cardinals.

He has a career 4.30 ERA, and is as likely as anyone to churn out an effective season in relief. It may seem that he picked the wrong team, but the way these injuries have been popping up...

[previous: Trivia] . . . [next: Browsing the headlines]

[Trivia]

2005-01-23T13:49:00.000-05:00

OK, here's a list. Anybody know what it represents?

1. 1990: Tom Browning, $2,125,000
2. 1997: Alex Fernandez, $7,000,000
3. 2005: Randy Johnson, $16,000,000

[previous: Pre-arbitration happenings, part one] . . . [...part two]

[Recent goings-on, part one]

2005-01-21T01:08:00.000-05:00

Here's a rundown on the Bucs' headlines since we last gathered 'round the letsgobucs.com e-campfire.

Maholm cleared for duty, 1.13

Paul Maholm, a lefthanded starter, was the Bucs' #1 pick in 2003, the last of three consecutive first-round college pitchers. He was solid but unspectacular at Mississippi State, and pitched well at Williamsport after signing. His '04 started well, but he was hit in the face by a line drive on May 15, ending his season and jeopardizing his career.

Two things:

1. Coverage of the minors is greatly lacking, even a decade into the information age; it would be overly kind to say that this story was underreported.

Baseball America does a noble job, but team pages are scattershot and infrequently updated, and the MLB franchises have not taken the baton.

Some kind of cooperative effort needs to take place, hopefully resulting in more specialized opt-in e-mail lists. Note to MLB teams: Coordinate your in-house transactions/game results/highlights, hire a small team of CGI code experts for two weeks, and spread the word.

It's a distribution problem, not a licensing problem. It can be done.

2. More importantly, here's a story for all Pirates fans (and baseball fans in general) can invest in. Maholm had a series of surgeries to rebuild his optical cavity, and subsequent surgery to correct his vision.

Many extol the virtues of non-arm injuries to pitchers; for example, Josh Beckett's blisters may have saved his shoulder/elbow from the slag machine. But this is something else entirely.

Herb Score was hit by a Gil McDougald liner, and was never the same. Bryce Florie made a nominal comeback from his devastating 2000 injury, but his career is effectively over.

Other pitchers have been able to come back completely. Kaz Ishii is the same pitcher after taking a line drive that fractured his skull. Anecdotally, I once saw Pete Smith take a shot off his head in 1990 that changed the ball's trajectory by 90 degrees and sent it into the visitors' bullpen at Candlestick; we was just fine afterward.

That's a long-winded way to say that nobody knows.

It's just another reason to root for Paul Maholm.

Kip throws well, gets raise, 1.14

The Pirates avoided arbitration with Kip Wells, signing him to a one-year, $3,175,000 contract. That sounds about right; he's a very good pitcher when healthy, and if his elbow's sound (as it appears to be), the contract is exponentially more likely to be a bargain than a bust.

Bucs granted extra option year on Williams, 1.15

Dave Williams now has one more option year. This means he's guaranteed a rotation spot, but it may be in Indianapolis.

(More this weekend)

[previous: Rewarding mediocrity] . . . [next: Trivia]

[Meadows: Mediocrity's rich reward]

2005-01-13T16:13:00.000-05:00

The Pirates avoided arbitration with Brian Meadows, inking him to a one-year, $1,125,000 contract.

A Steigerwaldian response would include several of the 1.125 million reasons Meadows should thank the Pirates and their fans. But what makes it a bad deal?

Meadows has logged more than 800 innings in accruing his lifetime 5.08 ERA. In seven seasons in the majors, he's posted an ERA below 4.70 just twice: 2002 and 2004. He began to resemble an effective pitcher once assigned exclusively to the bullpen.

Superficially, his career relief stats look good: 3.58 in relief, .258 BA against. Some numbers below the surface -- particularly least year -- are troubling.

Last year Meadows had what is being called "arguably [his] best season". It was, when you compare it to the remainder of his career. But it wasn't really that good.

Meadows' 3.58 ERA last year does not reflect the nine unearned runs -- of the 40 runs he allowed -- that came around to score.

I know, I know; you can't count unearned runs against a pitcher. Right?

Not entirely.

First, the runs scored. Those are runs that determine who wins the game, just like an earned run.

Secondly, as I've mentioned before, traditional relief stats can be misleading in general; you have to take a reliever's stats in context.

Finally, a pitcher gets a bit of a free pass regarding earned runs. For example, a pitcher (let's call him "Brian") gets two quick outs. The third hitter lines one into the gap, where the left fielder (call him "Ben Grieve") muffs it.

Then Brian gives up, say, five homers in a row.

Those five runs were all earned in a literal sense, but don't count against the pitcher. The example is extreme, but the point is no less valid.

Take a look at Meadows' career numbers with the Bucs:

Specifically, note that RAA-ERA column. Last year, 22.5% of Meadows' runs were unearned.

Now look at the NL's composite numbers over the same three seasons:

In today's game, a pitcher can expect roughly 8.3% of his runs to be unearned. More importantly, the expected percentage of runs allowed that are earned is roughly 91.7%.

Following that model, Brian Meadows' 2004 ERA would have been 4.23.

I know that this is all conjecture, and it borders on navel-gazing. But a 4.23 ERA is what you can expect from Meadows in 2005, assuming his "breakthrough" 2004 was legitimate.

If you run a guy out there who's unproven -- think Mike Gonzalez last year -- he has a chance of knocking your socks off. He could excel; he could crash and burn. It's a spectrum of outcomes.

With Meadows, if everything breaks right, you have a reliever who's barely above the league average.

Burning $1.125M and his spot on the active roster is just not worth the potential reward.

[previous: Comments/2005 roster] . . . [next: Pre-arbitration happenings]

[Comments on; 2005 roster]

2005-01-11T19:34:00.000-05:00

First, I've turned on the comments. Fire away.

Secondly, I've added a link at right to a current list of who the Bucs are bringing to camp. If it's not correct, please let me know.

Also, I'm working on a table of the contract obligations for the club through the decade's end. Dollars and length are relatively easy to find, but does anyone know where to find reputable tallies of service time (down to the day, preferably)? Any help is appreciated. I'm jonesing for the media guide...

[previous: Ritchie's back; new Bucs uniform] . . . [Meadows: Rewarding mediocrity]

[Ritchie's back; new alternate uniform]

2005-01-11T11:39:00.000-05:00

The Pirates have signed Todd Ritchie to a minor league contract and invited him to spring training.

Ritchie, now 33, was one of the Bucs' great salvage projects. A first round pick in 1990, Ritchie rose slowly through the Twins system and established himself in the Minnesota bullpen in 1997. He'd never started a major league game when the Twins released him in October of 1998.

Believe it or not, Todd Ritchie was the last Pirate to win 15 games (1999). He threw the first pitch at PNC Park in 2001, and barely missed a no-hitter against Kansas City that summer.

His greatest contribution to the Pirates was in fetching Kip Wells, Josh Fogg, and Sean Lowe from the White Sox after the '01 season. I won't call it Littlefield's most astute move -- the last two Pirates GMs' best trades both involved Brian Giles -- but turning a retread into 40% of your starting rotation (for three years and counting, now) is no mean feat.

For Ritchie, ineffectiveness (2002, Chicago) was followed by shoulder trouble (2003, Milwaukee) and a combination of both (2004, Tampa Bay).

Now he's back, in the mix for the 5th starter slot, on a $350,000 non-guaranteed contract that can approach a million if incentives are reached.

The Pirates have better options.

I'm hoping that Dave Williams gets the job. He too is coming back from shoulder problems, and showed glimpses of brilliance late last summer. I'm not convinced that Vogelsong will ever turn the corner, but I would like to see Snell, Van Benschoten, and Peterson get a good look.

I can't help feeling that the Pirates' trade of Ritchie in 2001 was their last harvest of his usefulness. I know I sound alarmist and pessimistic, but the warm patina of nostalgia can fog the judgment of the best of us.

This is a decision that must be based on merit, not on sentiment.

---

In other news, the last sentence of the article is a doozy:

The Pirates also plan to unveil a new pinstriped alternate uniform that weekend.

If it replaces the black shirt/white pants combo, sign me up.

Will it be a vest, a pinstriped vest? I don't think that's been done before.

The Bucs have been at the forefront of many of baseball's sartorial faux pas. They pioneered the use of the doubleknit polyester uniforms in 1970, setting baseball style back almost twenty years. The mix-and-match black and gold duds of the late '70s had only the Astros' moon-man jerseys as fellow exemplars of bad taste. The gold pillbox hat deserves a column of its own, and the baker-style gray road caps from 1997-2000 were eyesores from the start.

Pittsburgh's current vests -- adopted when they moved to PNC -- rank as my favorite since the 1950s off-white flannels. I would drop the names from the backs of the home whites, but otherwise they're perfect: classic, distinct yet understated, and without a hint of gimmick. They reflect the tradition of a proud and historic team for the first time in decades.

I'll reserve judgment on the pinstripes till I see them. As long as they button up the front, lack a day-glo base color, and fit more flatteringly than a tube sock, how bad can they be?

[previous: Picture] . . . [next: Comments on; 2005 roster]

[Picture]

2005-01-09T03:50:00.000-05:00

Photos like this always crack me up this time of year.

A pair of middle-aged guys, wearing street clothes beneath generic uniforms, striking unnatural poses. What's not to like?

Also, you've seen this, right?

[previous: Good reads & listens] . . . [next: Ritchie's back; New uniform]

[Good reads and listens]

2005-01-09T03:23:00.000-05:00

A few things around the web that I've found interesting lately:

The Great Debate, baseballamerica.com

VOROS McCRACKEN: If I had a list of Rule 5 players, Rule 5 candidates only, and I see a pitcher with absolutely dynamite minor league stats, I don't need to see a scouting report to know that the scouts don't like this pitcher. If the scouts liked this pitcher, he would not be on this list in front of me...
I would be comfortable in drafting him, bringing him to spring training, and having a look-see. It's a riskless proposition. It's fifty grand.

If you read anything this offseason, read this.

A small roundtable discussion moderated by Alan Schwarz, featuring both sides of the Moneyball dichotomy: scouts Eddie Bane (Angels) and Gary Hughes (Cubs) vs. analysis trailblazers Gary Huckabay (A's) and Voros McCracken (Red Sox).

You can really see why these two sides don't get along. Sparks fly, petty grievances are aired, and, in the end, shared visions are acknowledged.

An instant classic.

Bane/Weaver, all-baseball.com
Rich Lederer refutes some of Bane's comments with an illuminating look at Jered Weaver's numbers in comparison to Mark Prior's.

'When a Game Saved Was a Game Earned', nytimes.com
You need a free subscription to access Alan Schwarz's superb historical analysis of closers who get more than three outs. Every BBWAA member should be tested on this article before submitting a HOF ballot.

'Fame School Preps Baseball Rookies for the Bigtime', npr.org
Corn-fed sluggers as a populace's ideal. Jealous ex-classmates. Bobby Bonilla on strip club protocol.

Not a bad way to spend four and a half minutes.

Koufax or Blyleven?, espn.com
Easy choice, right? Maybe not. Jim Caple makes a good (and often overlooked) point in this column. My, my; hey, hey.

For what it's worth, I'd have voted for Blyleven, Gossage, and Boggs. I have no problem with Sandberg getting in, but he wouldn't have been on my ballot. Blyleven is easily the best eligible player not in the Hall of Fame.

[previous: Burnitz: Uh oh] . . . [next: Picture]

[Uh-oh]

2005-01-09T01:34:00.000-05:00

Let's hope that this P-G piece is all smoke and no fire. Maybe "money issues" is the euphemistic antithesis of "loss of mental faculty".

Even if Burnitz takes over in left -- moving Bay to center and Redman to the bench -- it's not worth even matching the $3M option that the Rockies declined. (Burnitz wanted a two-year deal worth as much as $18M from Colorado.)

The .916 OPS last year was not a rebound season; it was the product of the mile high air. He slugged .670 in Denver, .448 everywhere else. He's a post-Milwaukee Gorman Thomas, minus the surprisingly good defense.

This may just be Burnitz's camp trying to get some leverage while the Diamondbacks waffle on Shawn Green. Cross your fingers.

[previous: Two more NRIs] . . . [next: Good reads & listens]

[More NRI action]

2005-01-08T10:16:00.000-05:00

The Pirates are bringing two more players to camp with minor league deals:

Kevin Olsen, P. Olsen's a soft-tossing righty reliever who doesn't miss bats, but has episodes of effectiveness. If he sticks with the organization, he'll be Indianapolis' version of Brian Meadows.
Edwards Guzman, C/IF. Guzman doesn't walk or hit for power, but he's versatile. A former full-time catcher, he now logs more time at the corners than behind the plate. He would be a good utility player and third catcher on a team that needs one. With Craig Wilson on staff for emergency duty, the Pirates do not.

[previous: Jack Wilson signs] . . . [next: Burnitz: Uh-oh]

[Jack Wilson signs]

2005-01-07T13:46:00.000-05:00

The Pirates signed Jack Wilson for a two-year, $8M contract. Pittsburgh will still control his rights for the 2007 season. Looks like I got all worked up for no reason.

This is a smart signing. Wilson would have likely made more in arbitration this year, and will likely make less after next season's inevitable regression. Fair for both parties.

Let's hope his recovery from emergency appendectomy surgery goes more smoothly than Adrian Beltre's did.

[previous: Four NRIs] . . . [next: Two more NRIs]

[Four signed, invited]

2005-01-07T12:36:00.000-05:00

Yesterday, the Pirates signed four players to minor league contracts and invited them to spring training:

Kirk Bullinger, RHP. Bullinger was a 32nd round pick by the Cardinals in the 1992 draft. He went to the Expos for Ken Hill in the post-strike selloff, and has bounced around a handful of other organizations since. He's logged just 50 MLB innings since his debut in 1998, and has appeared in more than 500 minor league games. He'll probably close or set up for Indianapolis.
Brian Mallette, RHP. Mallette's MLB career consists of five innings for the Brewers in 2002. He's been used exclusively in relief since drafted out of Kennesaw State in 1997. He'll bolster Indianapolis' bullpen.
Paul Chiaffredo, C. I admit, I had to look him up. He's a backup catcher with some pop and little patience.
Graham Koonce, 1B. This is the jewel of the Pirates' off-season signings. Koonce was signed by the Tigers out of high school in 1993, was let go, and spent some time in the independent leagues. He'd never made noise higher than AA until his breakout season at Midland in 2002 (.274/.440/.447). He tore up AAA in 2003 (.277/.403/.542), and had a decent 2004, despite a drop in batting average (.241/.362/.449). He's cheap, he's had three big years in a row, and if he gets hot for a few weeks in March he could break camp with the Bucs. He'll turn 30 in May. It's make-or-break time. I'd love to see it happen.

Another solid round of pickups by Littlefield, on par with his last two; this is imperative of a low-revenue club.

There'll be some parts to work with in Bradenton. I'm excited to see who heads north.

[previous: No extension for Perez] . . . [next: Wilson signs two-year deal]

[No Perez extension pending]

2005-01-02T02:54:00.000-05:00

Dave Littlefield doesn't want to lock up Oliver Perez.

Ours is a dim planetarium, and Perez is easily its brightest star. I agree with the decision, but not the rationale.

"There is a thing that people don't fully comprehend," [Littlefield] said. "Cost certainty is a sexy term in the industry right now. If you hit on the right guy, the savings are guaranteed. But we have to consider that a small-market team can't afford to make mistakes. We have to balance everything."

Caution is expected, especially with a strikeout pitcher in his early twenties who has a taste for winter ball. Fiscal responsiblity is nearly noble in this town. Why pay him if you don't have to?

But Perez is the right guy.

I noticed something late this season, as he closed in on 200 strikeouts. Fans at the ballpark cared. On a dark wet night in September, bottom of the seventh, there was a round booing of Bobby Hill, pinch-hitting for Perez. That moment fanned an old ember in my heart, both for the Bucs and for Pittsburgh's baseball fanship.

The milestone may have been abitrary, but the sentiment was not. Walk-up sales were stellar for his starts, particularly in the season's second half.

Oliver Perez is the type of player that no other team has. Here's hoping he's here for another ten years.

[previous: Jack Wilson: Breakout or fluke?] . . . [next: Four NRIs]

[Jack Wilson: Breakout or fluke?]

2005-01-01T18:57:00.000-05:00

Today's P-G says that the Pirates are discussing a three-year deal with Jack Wilson, which would buy out his arbitration eligibility.

This is dangerous territory. I can understand a two-year deal; the Pirates get cost certainty, and Wilson security in case he slides back to his pre-2004 form. But three years, with the current shortstop market model, means he'll be seeking about four million per.

He's not worth it.

Take a look at his career through 2003, and then the 2004 season:

It comes down to one question for Pirates management: Was Wilson's 2004 a breakout season or a fluke?

Wilson's increase in batting average may be the key to the riddle. He more than doubled his power categories, but his singles also saw a significant spike.

His peripheral numbers show no change in approach. His BB/K rate stayed flat, and he had the lowest BB/PA rate since his rookie year. His GB/FB rate was right in line with his career numbers.

What gives me pause is his batting average on balls in play. From 2001-2003, he hit .289 on balls put in play. Last year, he hit .346. Was he hitting the ball harder, turning fly outs into gap doubles? Maybe.

But it's more likely that he was lucky.

The league average for BABIP (batting average, balls in play) is usually around .300. Consider these great fluke seasons of all time, and check out the BABIP discrepancies:

Jack Wilson's 2004 is not an outlier to match most of these historic fluke seasons, but he did have just three seasons to establish a legacy of subpar play.

Wilson just turned 27. In 2005, the real Jack Wilson will most likely stand up.

Here's hoping the Pirates wait till he does before signing him to a long-term deal.

[previous: Resolutions] . . . [next: No Perez extension pending]

[This Pirates fan's resolutions]

2005-01-01T02:54:00.000-05:00

1. Honor the little guy

2. Stop complaining so much

Seriously.

Yes, we know that only the Brewers can match our streak of losing records. Yes, the Bullington/Upton debacle is primed to haunt you for the next 15 years or so. Yes, the Marlins (the %$^&$ Marlins) have won two World Series since the Pirates last finished at .500.

You love this team. It's in your blood. Relish Perez's starts, Castillo's throws from the hole, how Van Benschoten swings the bat.

It's there. Recognize it.

3. Quit thinking like it's 1992

Every offseason, when the free agents file, you have the furtive hope that the Bucs will make a big splash. You remember the rumors that Bucs could have acquired Griffey, and that Bonds considered Pittsburgh after his contract expired in 2001.

You are wiser now. You no longer spend Decembers over the transactions agate, breath baited, waiting to see what pieces will fit into the coming year's Pirates.

As 2005 dawns, you know that there will be no Beltran, no Beltre, no Kent or Clement.

And you will accept it, at last, and look toward a brighter day when the Bucs are buyers, not sellers.

4. Give up on the NBA

Dude, come on. I know you need something to get you through the winter. It's not the NBA. Nor is it "The Real Gilligan's Island" reruns On Demand. Read more books. Your happiness's interface does not take AA batteries.

5. Stop hating the Steelers so much

It's easy to resent the team that, 13-3 or 5-11, runs the media in this city.

This will be a full column sometime soon.

6. Write more

7. Reflect on the minor dynasty of 1990-1992

The Backman signing was half your life ago. Any of those three teams could have won the World Series, and one definitely should have. Stop spending your time lamenting what wasn't, and remember what was.

That was the team of your youth. Dig it.

8. Be less fat

That treadmill's in the basement for a reason, and it's not to hang your cardigan.

9. Wear fewer cardigans

10. Appreciate what you have

You spoiled yourself when you lived in San Francisco, with your A's season ticket and all those Giants games on your wife's company's dime. Each game was part of a greater purpose -- you could feel the season unfolding in July.

It's not like that at PNC right now. But it takes you 15 minutes to get from your house to a major league baseball game, and that's something to savor.

[previous: Worst free agent signings] . . . [next: Jack Wilson: Breakout or fluke?]

[Worst free agent signings]

2004-12-28T19:29:00.000-05:00

Last time I ranked my five favorite signings; now, here are what I consider the five worst free agents signings to date.

1. Jason Varitek (Red Sox, four years, $40M, complete no-trade clause)
After they let Pedro, Lowe, and Cabrera walk, the Sox made this atrocious decision. Varitek is a good player, but all this ex post facto team captain stuff is utter crap. They didn't crown a captain after 2003's choke job, or following any other abortive postseason foray dating back to the Carter administration.

Varitek's most-comparable list has degenerated from Roy Campanella to Stan Lopata to Eddie Taubensee, illustrating the widely accepted maxim that catchers seldom age like fine wine. If this gives Red Sox Nation their pirin tablets, so be it. But in 2008, the Red Sox will pay a 36-year-old catcher ten million dollars, and, contractually, will not be permitted to trade him.

2. David Eckstein (Cardinals, three years, $10.25M)
I've said it once, and I'll say it again -- were David Eckstein a man of color, he'd have never cracked 100 days of service time. He's fun to watch, but he is an awful choice to play every day; his arm is so weak at shortstop, he needs a running start to get the ball to first base.

As a utility guy making a million and a half or so, great. But handing him your starting shortstop job and the leadoff spot? At almost $3.5M a season? The Cardinals will likely take the NL Central again in 2005, but it'll be despite this move, not because of it.

3. Russ Ortiz (Diamondbacks, four years, $33M)
Don't pay too much attention to his lifetime .632 winning percentage. Ortiz is a league-average pitcher making over eight million dollars a year. He has terrible control, averaging a walk every other inning for his career; his ERA has been helped by his pitcher-friendly home parks. Bank One Ballpark is not nearly as forgiving.

If everything breaks right for him, he could harness his stuff and put together a few productive years. But the good money is on his imitating Jason Bere, not Jason Schmidt.

4. Vinny Castilla (Ex-Expos, two years, $6.2M)
Castilla seemed to revitalize his career in 2004. Take a look:

2004, home: .321/.379/.575
2004, away: .218/.281/.493

Think Coors Field had something to do with that? That's a lot of money for a guy who'll turn 39 before the contract is up. At least he's been pretty durable over his career, as you can count on him to make a lot of outs when he's not playing for the Rockies.

Six degrees of Dick Barone: Castilla played with Dante Bichette, who was traded for Dave Parker, who played with Stargell, who played with Groat, who sat out the end of a doubleheader on September 22, 1960, allowing Barone his major league debut.

5. Tony Womack (Yankees, two years, $4M)
Steven Goldman calls this the worst Yankees move of the past decade. That may be harsh, but his point that Womack can't hit and can't field is quite valid. Revenue sharing, my eye -- signing Womack is the biggest favor the Yanks could grant the rest of the AL East.

Honorable mentions: J.D. Drew, Adrian Beltre, Carl Pavano. These three are getting eight figures a year guaranteed; not one has put together consecutive productive seasons. The Richie Sexson and Troy Glaus deals are pretty steep, too, but they've had consistently better success than the other three.

A sense of profound relief has washed over me as I watch all these deep-pocket teams overspend. The Bucs sitting out an off-season has never felt better. That the Pirates passed on Tino Martinez, Joe Randa, and (presumably) Travis Lee is a very nice gift this time of year.

Happy New Year, everyone. May 2005 treat you better than 2004 did.

[previous: Stats on Sunday] . . . [next: Resolutions]

[Statistics on Sunday]

2004-12-26T23:09:00.000-05:00

More information can be found here.

[previous: Best free agent signings] . . . [next: Worst free agent signings]

[Best free agent signings]

2004-12-25T01:06:00.000-05:00

All's quiet on the Bucco front, so the attention turns to the rest of the majors.

Here are what I consider the five best free agents signings to date.

1. Wade Miller (Red Sox, one year, $1.5M; max with incentives: $4.5M)
I would rather have Wade Miller in 2005 -- questionable shoulder and all -- than almost any other pitcher on the board. He'll be the 5th starter till Schilling's at full strength, and could work his way into the rotation for good. Plus, come next season, the Sox control his rights. A slam dunk, and a rare show of fiscal restraint by a team with a big bankroll.

2. Pedro Martinez (Mets, four years, $53M)
I'm in the minority on this one, but I love this move for the Mets and for Pedro. Put aside the concerns that this isn't Pedro circa 1999. He's still striking out more than a batter per inning, and his control is improving (or, at worst, holding steady). Hitters are doing more with the balls they get into play, which may or may not be his fault. But Shea is the majors' best park for strikeout pitchers, and moving back to the NL saves Pedro an average of maybe three pitches per inning. I'll say it now: The decision to sign with the Mets puts Pedro Martinez in the Hall of Fame.

3. Nomar Garciaparra (Cubs, one year, $8M; max with incentives: $11M)
Nomar's star has fallen considerably in the last 18 months, but this contract looks spot-on to me. I see a Chicago opening day without Sosa, an All-Star berth and reborn icon status for Nomar, and an extension before rosters expand in September. If not, he's off the books for 2006. Good deal for all involved.

4. Richard Hidalgo (Rangers, one year, $5M)
Texas has represented itself as a small-market club since the A-Rod egregiousness; now the team is playing it smart with mid-tier free agents. Hidalgo's a good bet to give his flagging career a boost in the hitter-friendly, low-pressure home ballpark. Note to rotonuts: Major sleeper. Seriously. Sign me up.

5. Jose Valentin (Dodgers, one year, $3.5M)
The Dodgers made a nice situational signing with Jose Hernandez in 2004, and will likely get similar results from Valentin's contract. A liability against LHP, Valentin is best used in a platoon role. His low batting averages mask a productive player; Valentin takes a fair number of walks and has averaged more than 27 homers a year since 2000.

[previous: Puff piece pt. 2] . . . [next: Stats on Sunday]

[Puff piece, part 2]

2004-12-23T07:04:00.000-05:00

Dejan Kovacevic continues his discussion with McClatchy in today's P-G.

Two things stick out:

1. McClatchy sounds like he's feeling pretty sorry for himself. I don't mean to generalize, but he spends a lot of time in this interview (see also part 1) lamenting how the public perceives him and his rough lot in life.

To wit:

I wasn't going to win Pittsburgher of the year for the things I did, and I understand that.
If it makes me unpopular, then I'll bite that bullet.
I've taken my bullets.
I still have my scars from [the bottled water fiasco].
When I started this job, I had a full head of hair and it wasn't gray, so ... It's brutal.
It's a difficult job. I know people think that running a small-market baseball team is easy, but it's not.
I know some people would hope I move out, but I actually kind of like it here.
You have to bite the bullet and say, 'Boy, I'm going to be the most hated guy in this area for a while.'

I agree that McClatchy hasn't been the most popular guy in Pittsburgh for quite a while. But in this I see a person whose feelings are easily bruised, and who didn't know exactly what he was getting into.

For better or worse, Pittsburgh continues to host 81 major league games a year, thanks in part to Kevin McClatchy.

2. A lot is suddenly riding on the 2006 All-Star Game.

This echoes the new-stadium renaissance that we're still waiting for -- PNC was to instantly transform the Pirates into the mid-1990s Cleveland Indians.

Now, the All-Star Game is posited as another turning point for the franchise.

The 2006 All-Star Game is expected to boost ticket sales in the coming season, and the revenue spike will lead to a more competitive payroll (and thus, a more competitive team). The game represents a planetary alignment during which the baseball gods will finally smile on our fair city.

And if they do not, McClatchy implies, don't blame him.

[previous: Puff piece pt. 1] . . . [next: Best free agent signings]

[P-G puff piece with K. McC.]

2004-12-22T13:10:00.000-05:00

Dejan Kovacevic interviewed Kevin McClatchy for a piece in today's Post-Gazette.

The questions are mostly softballs, so there's not much to talk about.

I will anyway.

Our payroll went well above $50 million in 2001, as you know, and we lost a lot of money. Two things happened: Our payroll was going up, and attendance was going down.

Actually, no, not at all. Attendance was 1,748,908 in 2000 at Three Rivers, and 2,435,867 in 2001 at PNC. Per-game attendance increased by roughly 45%. And ticket prices went up between 2000 and 2001. There is no way to interpret this statement as truth.

The problem, of course, was that the key free agent signings in the 2000-01 off-season were Terry Mulholland and Derek Bell.

It was a personnel problem, not a financial problem.

Q: The Pirates received $13.3 million under Major League Baseball's revenue sharing in 2003, roughly double the amount of the previous year. That money was not available in previous years. What is the best way to account for this money if the major-league payroll went down? Did it all go in the minors?
A: No, we didn't pour all of it into the system.

(and then)

There needs to be increased revenue sharing. All you need to do is look at the NFL. The Pittsburgh Steelers get the same check that the New York Giants get. That makes things a lot easier. When I've got somebody outspending me by $150 million, that's tough. I could become a lot more intelligent if I had that extra $150 million each year.

Hmm. If you're not going to put the money back into the product, why does it matter how much money you get?

Q: What went into your decision to keep ticket prices level despite the All-Star lure?
A: I just didn't think it was the right time. I talked to my staff and told them I didn't want an increase. I've taken my bullets.
Q: A remnant of Bottled Watergate?
A: I still have my scars from that one.

Finally, some hope. At last, McClatchy is admitting at least some culpability in mistakes.

This, however, will be a sight I'll never be able to forget, and it was all McClatchy's doing:

More tomorrow, as the interview concludes.

[previous: Ward to return] . . . [next: Puff piece pt. 2]

[Ward to return, affordably]

2004-12-22T10:45:00.000-05:00

Daryle Ward signed a one-year, $950,000 contract to return to the Pirates.

It wasn't too long ago that Ward and Lance Berkman were expected to be two pillars of the Astros' offense. The conjecture was half-right.

Daryle Ward was a Pirates NRI last spring, and was among the last cuts before the Bucs headed north. Angry about not making the team, Ward suggested he would not accept the assignment to Nashville, even though he was contractually obligated to do so. He did indeed report to the AAA affiliate, and hit .287/.317/.573 in 101 plate appearances.

Ward's contract was purchased on May 11, and he hit for the cycle a few weeks later. He saw spot duty at first and in the outfield, and the Bucs even gave away a promotional Ward Cycle Shop t-shirt at a June home game.

He then missed all of July and the first half of August with a bum thumb, and returned to produce reasonably well as the season ended.

If that sounds like a roller coaster, check out Ward's OPS by month, 2004:

April: N/A (in minors)
May: 1.140
June: .581
July: N/A (injured)
August: .946
September: .603

Part of the Jekyll-and-Hydeness can be attributed to the lingering thumb problem that plagued him in June before he succumbed to a DL stint.

Bottom line: Daryle Ward is the very definition of replaceable talent, and the Pirates were smart to bring him back at this price.

Concomitantly, this signing means that Pirates are far less likely to sign or acquire a more expensive (and likely inferior) first base option like Tino Martinez, Travis Lee, or Doug Mientkiewicz. Or, God forbid, Randall F. Simon.

Good signing. Good price, good potential. Plus, there are warm residual feelings from his cycle to give the marketing side handy scoreboard montages, and the broadcast team vest-pocket platitudes. Everybody wins.

[previous: Stats on Sunday] . . . [next: Puff piece on K. McC.]

[Statistics on Sunday]

2004-12-19T01:09:00.000-05:00

Presented without comment:

[previous: Age-related irony] . . . [next: Ward to return]

[Age-related irony]

2004-12-16T22:25:00.000-05:00

MLB debuts

Benito Santiago: September 14, 1986
Lloyd McClendon: April 6, 1987

[previous: Santiago for Nunez] . . . [next: Stats on Sunday]

[Santiago for Nunez]

2004-12-16T18:01:00.000-05:00

The Pirates today traded pitching prospect Leo Nunez to the Royals for Benito Santiago.

Santiago was never as good as was once thought, and now he's a little bit better with the bat than most people realize.

His arm's gone from cannon to popgun; he nailed merely 22.2% of base stealers last season. That would have been among the bottom five in the majors had he qualified. Therein lies the second problem.

Santiago's an old catcher, and catchers seldom age gracefully once they hit the other side of 40. Santiago crests that hill before the season opens. He hasn't caught more than 125 games since 2001, and managed just 49 last season.

This trade, however, is not a bad one.

First, Santiago comes cheap. He's due to make $2.2M in '05, but the Royals are sending enough cash to cover all but $750,000 of it.

More importantly, this suggests about a half-season of Humberto Cota behind the plate. His power is intriguing; he hit two more homers than Jason Kendall ...in 508 fewer at-bats. Cota's lack of plate discipline is a concern, and McClendon's sure to stick him in the #8 spot, where his patience will be tested regularly.

If you can get 25 homers out of a cheap catcher, you're capitalizing on your resources. And that's the name of the game for a small market front office.

Before Cota is dubbed a career backup -- a label that's almost impossible to shake in today's game -- it would be nice to see what he can do. Maybe now we'll have that chance. Should Cota fail, J.R. House has another year to recover from elbow surgery and possibly re-insert himself into the Pirates' catching plans.

Leo Nunez is an interesting pitching prospect in a system laden with interesting pitching prospects. He went 10-4, 3.06 for Hickory this year, and his peripherals were solid (140 K, 46 BB, 121 hits in 144 innings) but unspectacular. His very slight build (6'2", 150) doesn't suggest endurance as a starter, and he'll be lucky to get through the injury nexus unscarred. Additionally, he really only has a fastball at this point; his is an arm better suited for the bullpen.

There may or may not be such thing as a pitching prospect. But a reliever prospect? Good luck.

[previous: Phelps: Ideal] . . . [next: Age-related irony]

[Phelps: An ideal target]

2004-12-15T07:40:00.000-05:00

Josh Phelps was designated for assignment by the Indians yesterday, barely a blip on the transactions wire.

Entering the 2003 season, Phelps seemed to be destined for a breakout season. His 2002 campaign with Toronto featured robust production (.309/.362/.562) in half a season. But his 2003 was a step backward (.828 OPS in ~400 AB), and in 2004 he was dealt to Cleveland for a marginal prospect.

Josh Phelps may never be the Bagwellesque slugger many had predicted. But the guy can hit left-handed pitching.

His numbers vs. LHP:

2002: .286/.364/.429
2003: .317/.393/.483
2004: .309/.368/.618

Career vs LHP: .302/.366/.523

His weakness is in the field. A converted catcher, Phelps has spent most of his service time at DH. He can play first if you define it as "stand near the base with a glove on your hand".

There's been talk about signing a retread to play first base or right field. Why not platoon Phelps and Daryle Ward at first, use the other as a pinch-hitter or in a double switch, and save a few million dollars in the process?

I'm a realist. I know we're not going to trade for A-Rod, sign Beltran, or exhume the Waner brothers. I understand how the baseball market works; more importantly, I understand how Pirates ownership thinks the market works.

This is a good bet at a good price. The Indians are basically giving Phelps away; all he would cost is a spot on the 40-man roster and about $600,000 in salary.

I think he's worth it.

[previous: Rule 5 results] . . . [next: Santiago for Nunez]

[Rule 5: No news is good news]

2004-12-13T17:50:00.000-05:00

The Pirates were idle during today's Rule 5 Draft.

Kudos to management for learning from last year's debacle.

[previous: Stats on Sunday] . . . [next: Phelps a worthy target]

[Statistics on Sunday]

2004-12-12T13:22:00.000-05:00

Presented without comment:

Jack Wilson's walks by month, 2004:

April: 2
May: 3
June: 4
July: 4
August: 6
September: 7
October: 0

[previous: Pirate for a fortnight] . . . [next: Rule 5 results]

[Pirate for a fortnight]

2004-12-11T19:32:00.000-05:00

Two weeks after acquiring Arthur Rhodes, the Pirates shipped him to Cleveland for Matt Lawton.

Rhodes was superfluous. He wasn't going to be of significant help to a team with Mike Gonzalez, who is a similar, cheaper, younger, and more effective pitcher.

Lawton is evidently slotted into right field, which sets off a chain reaction that begins to give the 2005 Pirates lineup some shape. Lawton in right moved Craig Wilson to first base; while Wilson's glove and arm are more suited to first, he has more value as an outfielder. This also locks Jason Bay into left field (for now), with Tike Redman patrolling center.

The best thing that the Bucs can do right now is commit to Bay in center and sign a corner outfielder with something to prove. Juan Gonzalez would look nice in the black and gold, signed to a low base salary contract laden with incentive clauses.

If the Pirates are convinced that Bay is unable to handle center, Marlon Byrd would be an excellent acquisition. Byrd's star has dimmed after a disappointing 2004, and with Kenny Lofton coming to Philadelphia, Byrd's the odd man out.

Lawton would be a lot more interesting had he been healthy lately. Still, he has talent. He can draw a walk, hit for a little power, and still runs the bases pretty well (23 SBs last year, in 32 attempts). His best years are behind him, but he's a lock for .275/.350/.425 if medically sound.

[previous: Six more NRIs] . . . [next: Stats on Sunday]

[Six more NRIs]

2004-12-10T16:09:00.000-05:00

The Bucs signed these dudes to minor league contracts and invited them to spring training:

Mark Corey, P. Corey was recalled from Nashville five different times last year, logging replacement-level innings at both levels. An ugly footnote to his '04 was that he cluttered the Bucs' 40-man (as did Joe Beimel, who was released when the Bucs broke camp) while five Pirates minor leaguers were taken in the Rule 5 Draft last winter. Another ugly footnote will follow him the rest of his career.
Joe Roa, P. Roa's 33, and has been around a long time. He's been traded with Tony Castillo, for Alejandro Pena, and was part of the 1996 Matt Williams for Jeff Kent blockbuster. Last year, Roa spent the entire season in the bigs for the first time in his career; he logged 70 above-average innings out of the Twins' bullpen. He can get righties out, but he'll likely be among the last excisions before the Bucs head north.
Damon Minor, 1B. Minor's 201 plate appearances in 2002 (in which he hit .237/.333/.445) were his apex. With Carlos Rivera bounced from the 40-man, Minor will likely be manning first for Indianapolis; Minor's a very effective AAA hitter. He also "plays the outfield". 30 years old.
Jose Leon, 3B. He was traded for Will Clark in 2000; most of his prospecty sheen is now gone. Just turned 28.
Carlos Maldonado, C. Had a great year for Birmingham in 2004, but he was 25 and still in AA. He is not likely to make the team, but he could carve out a backup's career with good health and a few breaks. Not to be confused with the AL Central pitcher of 10 years ago.
Rodolfo Pena, C. Another catcher in Pittsburgh named Pena? Don't count on it. Hit .171/.197/.236 in limited Lynchburg duty.

[previous: Bucs sign five NRIs] . . . [next: Pirate for a fortnight]

[Pirates sign a handful of minor league free agents]

2004-12-03T13:45:00.000-05:00

The Pirates signed five players to minor league contracts and invited them to spring training.

The five (sorry about the bullets):

Jon Nunnally, OF. I enjoyed Nunnally before I could legally get hammered (unless I went to Canada); he was a key member of my 1996 APBA championship club. He draws walks and has a little bit of pop, two qualities the Bucs could use. Having never caught on in the majors due to annually low batting averages and a small stature (5'10"), Nunnally has bounced around the minors and Japan for the last ten seasons. He's 33 and in the autumn of his career, likely to spend the season in Indianapolis. I'd love to see him get some service time in Pittsburgh.
Brian Reith, P. Reith had a woeful 2004, but he's only a year removed from relative effectiveness. In another year, he might make the bullpen; this year's is a deep corps, and he'll have to dazzle in Bradenton to make that happen. With a career K/9 rate under 6, it's unlikely.
Chris Enochs, P. 1997 sure feels like forever ago, doesn't it? Enochs finally makes it to his hometown team. After an All-American senior year at WVU, Enochs was the 11th overall pick in the '97 draft, receiving a signing bonus of more than $1.2 million. He has spent the last eight seasons in the Athletics' and Astros' chains, never reaching the majors.
Jorge Velandia, IF. Velandia has shown no ability to hit at the major league level; in parts of six seasons, his career line is .151/.231/.201. That's a .201 slugging percentage. Again, .201 career slugging percentage in the major leagues. His line last year in Richmond (AAA): .212/.295/.317. Godspeed, Indianapolites.
Ron Chiavacci, P. Lots of strikeouts, lots of walks, lots of hits. From Scranton.

[previous: Brooks designated ] . . . [next: Six more NRIs ]

[Frank Brooks designated for assignment]

2004-11-28T13:29:00.000-05:00

To make room for Rhodes and Redman, the Pirates dumped Brooks. I enjoyed watching him pitch in his one start, and was amazed how little he looked like a man named Frank Brooks. He looks a lot like a Heath or a Sean. I wish I could find a photo online.

As far as dropping somebody from the 40-man, they could have done far worse. The only other logical option would have been Brian Meadows, who's most likely the next to go.

It's all but guaranteed that Brooks has a year of 50+ innings and an ERA under 2.00 before the end of the decade. If he can time that season around his arb-eligible emancipation, he'll carve out a lucrative career.

Early hunch is he'll end up in Baltimore, if only because he's both Brooks and Frank.

[previous: Kendall to Oakland ] . . . [next: Bucs sign 5 minor league FAs]

[Pirates trade Jason Kendall to Oakland for Arthur Rhodes and Mark Redman]

2004-11-27T20:52:00.000-05:00

An era ends.

Kendall's one of my all-time favorite players. He was the face of the franchise, wearing the #18 that passed from Virdon to Alou to Moreno to Van Slyke to "The Kid". His return from a gruesome injury proved his gritty persona was no facade. His willingness to take one for the team -- and eschewing an elbow pad for a long time -- brought me happiness.

He has no power since a 2001 thumb injury, and he always seemed a bit lacking on a personal level. But he's the guy you point to and tell your kids, "That's how you play the game" (while also hoping that your kids developed at least gap power).

Kendall was the last link to Leyland's Bucs, and he caught more games than any other Pirate; in 1999, he was elected to represent the team in the Post-Gazette's Team of the Century. The usual wistful thoughts come to mind, but nostalgia is dimmed by the state of affairs in Pittsburgh.

The Pirates just traded their marquee player so they wouldn't have to pay him anymore.

The team is no better off today than when Kendall debuted against Kevin Brown and went 3-for-4 from the 8-hole.

A few thoughts:

Bringing in a high-profile catcher is a mistake of unspeakable proportions. An overpaid, aging catcher is the last thing you want right now, having just unloaded a burdensome contract. Please, please say it ain't so.
If it is so, please let it be Toby Hall; I still think he has a Brian Harperish five years of production in him.
If you hear the new Pirates catcher introduced as a "well-respected defensive specialist" or "Charles Johnson", look for me at the bottom of a tall glass of brown liquor. Bad times pending.
I have liked Rhodes since he was Arthur Lee Rhodes. It's nice to see him in the National League after 14 seasons in the AL. I always wonder why he never bloomed as a starter, given his lack of platoon split.
I would not be surprised if both Rhodes and Redman are gone by March 1, and I'd be shocked if either finishes 2005 with the Pirates.
Now that Kendall and Abe Nunez have been jettisoned, the longest-tenured current Pirate player is... Tike Redman. No other current, active Pirate suited up in the black and gold at Three Rivers Stadium.

[previous: J.J. Davis dealt to Nats] . . . [next: Brooks designated]

[Pirates trade J.J. Davis to Washington for Antonio Sucre]

2004-11-24T20:10:00.000-05:00

It's good to see Davis escape McClendon's whims; he was bound to go after being designated for assingment on November 12. He never really got a chance with the Pirates, and his July hip injury basically buried him for the rest of the year. I wish him the best, and I wouldn't be at all suprised if he's a future member of the Productive Ex-Bucs Club (2004 inductee: Bronson Arroyo).

Antonio Sucre is not much to behold at this point. He's an outfielder who hit .240/.329/.353 with three steals in eight attempts. His walk rate (35 in ~390 plate appearances) shows a bit of promise, but he struck out 114 times in 2004.

As expected, Sucre's most appealing trait is that he's not on the Nats' 40-man roster. He'll likely start next season at Hickory.

[previous: Building a bullpen - Part 2 of 2 ] . . . [next: Kendall to Oakland]

[Building a bullpen - Part 2 of 2]

2004-11-24T15:38:00.000-05:00

(continued from Part 1 of 2)

The save is a circumstance. It is not the end-all of reliever statistics, especially in the one-inning-save environment of today. If you think a Proven Closer is the key to a pennant, you're reading the wrong guy.

A game is seldom decided in the ninth inning. The key inning is usually earlier, when fires must be extinguished before your lead evaporates, or before the game gets away from you. Often, the outs you need the most are recorded by the pitchers you trust the least -- or, at best, that you trust less than your closer.

Mesa's shiny saves -- all 43 of them -- belie a pretty crappy pitcher. So if you trust your closer the most, why not promote Torres to that role?

The case for Torres:

He's locked up at a middle reliever price
Marginal platoon split (2004: .254/.291/.341 vs LH, .257/.310/.355 vs. RHP)
Excellent control (22 walks in 92 IP)
Keeps the ball down (almost 2 1/2 ground balls to every fly ball; 6 HR allowed; 11 DPs induced)

The case against Torres:

Not a Proven Closer
Doesn't strike a lot of hitters out (only 62 in 92 IP)
A good, full season in '04 was his first since, well, probably 1993, which was split between Shreveport and Phoenix in the Giants' farm system

I saw about 80% of the Pirates' games this season; I attended roughly half of their home games in person. I never trusted Mesa with a small lead. Or a large lead. I never trusted him with other pitchers' runners on base. I was certain that he was far worse than his 3.25 ERA.

So I dug up some statistics that reflect relievers' performance more accurately than our traditional stats:

For perspective, some MLB totals and averages, courtesy of my good friend Joe:

Inherited runners: 7,274; scored: 2,329; InhRS%: 32.0
Bequeathed runners (relievers only): 4,121; scored: 1,286; BeqRS%: 31.2
FRA: 4.81

Wow. I was dead wrong. Mesa inherited eleven runners on the season -- admittedly, a low total for a closer (and a small sample size) -- but allowed just one of them to score.

Torres benefitted from his successors, as he left 16 men on base and only three scored; those numbers mesh, not coincidentally, with Mesa's InhRS%.

Still, Torres was the more valuable pitcher. He was entrusted with 40 baserunners and allowed a mere quarter of them to come around. He was the most valuable reliever for the Pirates according to VORP, and was second among all Bucco hurlers to only Oliver Perez. (VORP also says that Mike Gonzalez was the Bucs' third-most valuable pitcher -- and he threw just 43 1/3 innings.)

So, yes, I was wrong. Bring in Mesa to start the ninth when we're ahead by 2. Continue to use Torres and Gonzalez in the high pressure situations, in the 6th and 7th and 8th, with runners on base and the game on the line.

The Pirates are doing the right thing by saving Mesa to start the 9th. Does it matter if they're doing it for the wrong reasons?

[previous: Building a bullpen - Part 1 of 2] . . . [next: J.J. Davis dealt to Nats]

[Building a bullpen - Part 1 of 2]

2004-11-23T23:50:00.000-05:00

The best barometer of a small-market GM's acumen is his ability to build an inexpensive, effective bullpen. This is true because:

Relievers are easily found. Every year, a guy comes out of nowhere (the minors, the Far East, the scrap heap) and puts up a big year out of the bullpen. It's not a coincidence.
Relievers can do only one thing well and succeed, unlike a starter. LOOGYs get most of the press, but sidearming righty-killers, flamethrowers without control, and groundball specialists all can contribute to a championship-caliber bullpen.
Relievers' reputations are often built on superficial or misleading statistics. Thanks in part to a rotisserie mindset, the save's value is wildly overinflated. A game's fulcrum isn't the top of the ninth, up by three, nobody out, nobody on. Further, if a reliever leaves with a man on first and the next pitchers allows the run to score, the pitcher no longer in the game is charged with the run.
Relievers' price tags seldom correspond to their abilities. A Proven Closer (caps of contempt intentional) is always in demand. When a pitcher like Jeff Brantley or Antonio Alfonseca entered the market, GMs would open their wallets based on save totals from seasons past; excellent middle relievers who do not rack up the saves (Scot Shields, Mike Gonzalez, Guillermo Mota, etc.) are seldom paid -- or recognized -- according to their production.

Everybody know that Albert Pujols is a monster talent, certainly worth an eight-figure contract. But because of the discrepancy between what relievers are worth and what they are actually paid, there is a lot of room for a GM to gain ground on his big-market peers.

This year, the Pirates' bullpen was a pleasant surprise, and holds some promise for the 2005 season. Here's a look at 2004:

Those were the seven most-used pitchers out of the Bucco bullpen in 2004. John Grabow averaged less than an inning per appearance, and was usually a situational LOOGY. Mike Johnston was the third lefty out of the bullpen, and Mark Corey spent the season shuttling between Nashville and the big club.

Gonzalez was almost traded in late 2003, and he did more than prove his merit this year. McClendon pigeonholed him as a specialist when the season was young, but Gonzalez earned his manager's trust, holding both lefties and righties to averages around .200.

Jose Mesa was a boon to fantasy owners, saving 43 games and keeping a respectable ERA.

Salomon Torres was the go-to in setup situations, leading all Pirates relievers in appearances and innings by a large margin.

This all leads us to the big Bucs hot stove news of the off-season: Mesa signed for one year at $2.5 million, Torres for $2.6 million over two years.

Torres is a bargain, and money well spent. But Mesa? Is this how you want to budget the discretionary free agent fund? Wouldn't you rather go chumming for relievers in January, saving your money for a mid-tier free agent hitter?

If the Pirates signed Mesa to trade him in-season, that's fine; in fact, that's how I rationalized Mesa's signing last offseason. But this is a guy who declared at the 2004 trade deadline that he was staying put, even though he had contractual authority to block a trade.

But what's done is done. Next time, we'll figure out how to optimize the relievers' usage.

[previous: Hiring from within] . . . [next: Building a bullpen - Part 2 of 2]

[Hiring from within]

2004-11-21T22:11:00.001-05:00

OK, I'm back.

In light of Condoleezza Rice's recent promotion, I'm taken back to the 2000-01 offseason. Bear with me.

Four years ago, the sky was falling, analysts and columnists warned us. Baseball's most foolish spending spree took place over three months. The biggest news came when Alex Rodriguez signed with the Texas Rangers for $252 million over ten years, the largest contract in history (and likely the largest we'll see for a long time).

Here is the lineup they expected to slot A-Rod into for the coming season. If you doubt that 48 months can be half an eternity in baseball years, take a look:

Randy Velarde, 2B
Rusty Greer, LF
Ivan Rodriguez, C
Alex Rodriguez, SS
Rafael Palmeiro, 1B
Andres Galarraga, DH
Ken Caminiti, 3B
Gabe Kapler, RF
Ruben Mateo, CF

Good gravy. That lineup includes one guy who's retired (Velarde), two whose bats have retired (Greer, Galarraga), one heading to Korea for 2005 (Mateo), and a borderline Hall of Famer hanging on for another year (Palmeiro). Ken Caminiti died last month. Ivan Rodriguez sports a World Series ring to honor his contribution to the '03 Marlins; Kapler wears the same thanks to the '04 Red Sox.

Things were going dot-com for free-agent eligibles in the '00-01 offseason. The Colorado Rockies committed $176 million to two pitchers in less than a week. Kevin Appier got four guaranteed years at more than $10 million each. Jeffrey Hammonds, baseball's closest thing to a Faberge egg, got $21.5 million over three years.

Pirates fans remember that offseason for the terrible signings of Operation Shutdown and Terry Mulholland.

The buzzphrase that offseason was "revenue spike", as the Bucs were ready to open PNC Park. At the time, it was still believed that a new ballpark alone could reverse any team's attendance slides. Uniontown's Mulholland and superficially productive Shutdown would have been useful parts on a productive team, but for a team that lost 93 games? Let's all temper our expectations, right?

Cam Bonifay didn't. That was no real surpise, as Bonifay had repeatedly and adequately demonstrated his idiocy during his tenure at the helm. Here's what he said:

Terry Mulholland is a proven warrior who has pitched in big games and has helped his clubs get to the playoffs and succeed... [N]o question, I think [Shutdown] has the ability. He's a young 32 years old and he's in the prime of
his career.
OK, grain of salt, etc. Then we've got this gem, from incoming manager Lloyd McClendon, on the Bell and Mulholland signings:

This sends shock waves. Pittsburgh is no longer a doormat in the free-agent market.
Until this quote hit the papers, I was undecided on the McClendon hiring. I had residual warm feelings from his postseason heroics in 1992. He was an effective, resourceful player, and Iassumed he'd carry at least some of those attributes onto the bench.

The quote above was at best hyperbole, and at worst delusion. The more I thought about it, the worse I felt about having McClendon in charge. If you're going to hire from within, wouldn't you want someone who has demonstrated the ability to teach and to help players improve?

McClendon was the Bucs' major league hitting coach from 1997-2000. Here is how the Bucs fared just before and during McClendon's tenure as coach:

Year BA OBP SLG BB/K
1996 .266 .327 .407 510/989
1997 .262 .321 .404 481/1161
1998 .254 .304 .374 393/1060
1999 .259 .329 .419 573/1197
2000 .267 .339 .424 564/1032

These numbers suggest that he wasn't much more than a placeholder. His first two years showed a marked drop in plate discipline among Pirates hitters; they bounced back a bit in 1999 and 2000, largely thanks to 150 games a year from Brian Giles.

If the hitting didn't show any improvement, maybe he was promoted to reward his work as a hitting coach developing young players, tapping their potential.

Players like Chad Hermansen, who was viewed as a can't miss prospect with big power but a flawed hitting approach. A young infielder with brimming potential, Hermansen was prone to striking out. McClendon effectively ruined him, changing his swing and undermining his potential. Hermansen was 0-for-7 in 2004, and is effectively washed up at 27.

Players like second baseman Warren Morris, who had six first-place votes for Rookie of the Year in 1999. Morris hit possibly the most dramatic home run in baseball history before he turned pro, and seemed ready to roam the diamond where another author of a dramatic blast once made his home. Morris struggled through his sophomore year, and McClendon buried him on the bench when he became manager in 2001. Morris will be 31 in January, and he spent all of 2004 in the minors.

Players like Aramis Ramirez, whose breakout year finally came when McClendon was elevated from hitting coach to manager.

Players like Jose Guillen, who went from The Next Clemente to the next bus out of town under McClendon's tutelage, resurrecting his career several years later in Cincinnati.

Players like Adrian and Emil Brown, Jermaine Allensworth, Freddy Garcia, Midre Cummings, Mark Johnson... Each showed promise to have a career as a useful major leaguer. Not one had that career.

So when Condoleezza Rice became Secretary of State after an imperfect reign as national security adviser, I thought about the Pirates.

The Bucs and White House both like people who will stand with upper management and proudly spout the company line on any given topic.

Performance, at least to the Pirates, has very little to do with it.

[previous: A terrible thing] . . . [next: Building a bullpen - Part 1 of 2]

[A terrible thing]

2004-03-04T13:52:00.000-05:00

This happened.

[Off-season moves, part one of two]

2004-01-28T21:50:00.000-05:00

Here’s my take on the Pittsburgh off-season happenings and non-happenings through the end of January:

October 1, 2003: Released Jose Hernandez

Not my favorite move of the off-season, but a defensible one. Seriously, though, for all the ink his atrocious 2003 effort received, Hernandez had numbers on par with Jack Wilson's. The main difference between the two players is that Wilson will never, ever hit 25 homers, and Hernandez has a reasonable chance of rebounding to league-average shortstop numbers.

It's all academic, though. Wilson has McClendon's seal of approval, so he's safe. No matter how many outs he makes.

October 1, 2003: Claimed Jason Boyd off waivers from Cleveland

A terrible move, even before the assault charges were filed. When you're rebuilding, you have nothing as valuable as your slots on the 40-man roster. Why waste one on easily replaceable talent? Especially when the leaves have barely begun to turn colors? Can't figure this one out.

First off, the guy bumped an umpire in Pittsburgh. More importantly, he has bad numbers. His career 5.76 ERA is sorrowful, and his K/BB of 85/67 in 120 1/3 innings isn't much to inspire confidence down the road.

October 2, 2003: Released Jeff D'Amico

Like Hernandez, D'Amico was a free agent in waiting. So they had to clear a spot on the 40-man roster for big-time off-season pickups, right?

Funny thing is that as of today (January 28) there are still only 37 players on the 40-man.

November 10, 2003: Declined option on Pokey Reese

A no-brainer. Instead of paying him $5,000,000+, the Bucs took the buyout option at $750,000. That's the best three-quarters of a million they'll spend this off-season.

As a fan, I love Pokey Reese... in the field. He's a dominant defensive player, and a joy to behold. But you can't pay $5M+ for someone who doesn't walk and has no power. It will be fun to watch the Red Sox attempt a rare offense/defense platoon with him and Bellhorn, if that's what they choose to do.

November 18, 2003: Signed Duaner Sanchez and Nelson Figueroa to one-year deals

An intriguing gambit by Littlefield, and a creative move that was largely overlooked. The Pirates signed both pitchers to guaranteed split contracts, and summarily outrighted them to Nashville to manipulate space on the 40-man. The reasoning was that teams would be less likely to claim them, as they would have to be added to the big club's roster by any claiming team.

Sanchez was claimed by LA, and Figueroa slipped through. Of course, there's still room on the 40-man. Can someone explain this to me?

November 20, 2003: Added Sean Burnett, Mike Johnston, Ian Oquendo and John VanBenschoten to the 40-man roster

Hey, excellent. Burnett gets people out without any strikeouts, which doesn't portend future dominance, but VanBenschoten's a serious stud. Look for him in Pittsburgh late this summer, and expect him to be a #2 or #3 starter by 2005. Ian Oquendo (ne Snell) is now known as Ian Snell (ne Oquendo). He was the Bucs' minor league pitcher of the year, as voted by the front office brass.

But where the hell's the top minor league hitter, Chris Shelton? That cat put up obscene numbers in 2003. You can see this coming all the way down the Allegheny...

[Mission Statement]

2004-01-27T22:13:00.000-05:00

On October 14, 1992, I was 17 years old, having just begun my senior year of high school. I was under the weather that night. It was a mild fever, but a fever nonetheless, and I couldn't make it till the end of the game. Besides, the Pirates were up 2-0 in the 7th, and the Braves' bats had been dormant all night.

I remember trying to come up with something clever as I fought the medicine that was forcing me upstairs. "Goodnight," I told my dad, one of the few true baseball fans I know. "Get these six outs, and we'll beat the Twins in five."

I remember the light seeping into my bedroom, as my dad stage-whispered me from half-sleep. "You may think this is a dream," he said. "But the Pirates lost the game." I must have rolled, or muttered, because he paused. "I'll be dead before I see the Pirates win another World Series."

I remember going to college a few months later, and letting the phantom series of '94 suck a little of my soul away.

I remember scouring the Pirates' replacement rosters -- Mickey Brantley, anyone? -- when the labor agreement was still theoretical, spring of 1995. I let myself feel whole again when I saw the World Series for the only time, game four, that fall, at Jacobs Field, driving all night back to Syracuse afterward.

I remember trying to believe Jim Leyland's tearful farewell, knowing he'd welch and manage against the Bucs. Cordova and Rincon lighting up the night; my sister and her friends trading seats with McClatchy.

I remember moving west to California and listening to every Pirates game I could on the internet, back when it was free. I flew home in early 2001 to see the first exhibition game at PNC Park. It took my breath to see a ballpark like that with my city behind it.

But things got screwy, and fast. Were it not for the theft of Brian Giles, Cam Bonifay would have been run out of town much sooner. Lloyd McClendon came in, all swagger and platitudes, and ran out some of the most ridiculous lineups I've ever seen. I moved back to Pittsburgh when Bonifay's successor, David Littlefield, took over; he's had some hits and some misses. Lately, mostly misses. Frankly, I don't know what the hell kind of operation these people think they're running.

So here I am. I'm just a guy who likes baseball. I'm a serviceable writer, and my friends are tired of hearing me complain. I promise to update this weblog regularly and be as even-handed and entertaining as possible. Feel free to e-mail me anytime, and I'll do my best to respond. Even if you don't agree with me.

Let's go Bucs!